Vol. 1, No. 7
Issued Dec. 28, 1998
Next publication date: March
1, 1999
In This Issue
Export Decline
Continues
Merchandise exports across all of California's customs
districts (Los Angeles, San Francisco, and San Diego) fell in
October 1998, compared with the same period in 1997 (Figure 1).
October exports fell 13.8 percent for the state as a whole, 12.4
percent from San Francisco, 16.1 percent from Los Angeles, and
4.2 percent from San Diego Customs District. This is the first
decline for San Diego, which until October had been expanding
exports at a average rate of 10-15 percent. During October, U.S.
exports (less all California Customs Districts) fell 6.4 percent.
This decline in exports for Los Angeles and San Francisco Customs
Districts can be traced to trade with and economic weakness in
parts of Asia. For example, more than 50 percent of exports from
these districts is destined for East Asia, including Japan. The
comparable figure for the U.S. is about 20 percent. (See RAND California Foreign
Trade Statistics for more details.)
Figure 1
Monthly Change in Merchandise Exports, 1998 Compared to 1997
Unemployment
Remains Highest In Central Valley
California's unemployment rate in November registered
5.5 percent, a decline of 0.4 percentage points from November
1997 and a decline of 4.0 full percentage points from November
1992. (See RAND
California Employment and Unemployment Statistics for
unemployment statistics on California and its regions.) The
highest rates in major population centers remain in the Central
Valley of the state. The unemployment rate in the Fresno MSA was
the highest at 13.8 percent, while the unemployment rate in the
Bakersfield MSA was 12.5 percent. (See major regions for
MSA and region definitions.) The lowest unemployment rate was in
the San Francisco Bay Region at 3.1 percent, with San Diego a
close second at 3.2 percent. The unemployment rate in the Greater
Los Angeles Region (5.4 percent) remains close to the state
average.
Figure 2
California and Regional Unemployment Rates, Not Seasonally
Adjusted
Commercial
Construction Returns to Pre-Recession Levels
Non-residential construction valuation in California has
returned and surpassed pre-recession levels in 1998. Through
September of this year, the value of all new non-residential
construction was $11.1 billion, more than $1.1 billion more than
in 1990. About three-fourths of all new commercial activity is
occurring in the Los Angeles and San Francisco Bay regions. (For
detailed construction statistics at the county level, see RAND California
Construction Statistics.)
Figure 3
Non-residential Construction Valuation (through Sept.)
New Housing
Construction Still Not Back to 1990 Levels
New residential housing has expanded considerably since
the early 1990s, but has yet to reach levels observed in the
late-1980s or in 1990. Through September of this year, the number
of new housing units reached 93,600, higher than in any year
since 1990. In 1990, the number of new units reached nearly
140,000. In contrast to new commercial building, about one-half
of new residential construction has occurred in regions outside
of Los Angeles and San Francisco.
Figure 4
New Residential Housing Units (through Sept.)
Return to top of this
issue
Return to RAND California Economic
Reports
Return to RAND California Home Page