Vol. 1, No. 6
Issued Nov. 23, 1998

Next publication date: December 28, 1998

In This Issue

State Unemployment Rate Drops Slightly in October
California's unemployment rate fell slightly in October to 5.9 percent in October, a 0.1 percent decline from September (Figure 1). The October reading marks a 0.3 percent decline from the same period a year ago. California's unemployment rate is near its performance in 1989, when the rate fell to as low as 5.0 percent. The unemployment rate in the U.S. remains about 1 to 1.5 percentage points lower than in California, although it also has increased slightly in the past few months. In October, the U.S. rate registered 4.9 percent, down 0.1 percentage points from September. (See RAND California Employment and Unemployment Statistics for unemployment statistics on California and its regions.)

Figure 1
California and U.S. Unemployment Rates, Seasonally Adjusted

Unemployment rates throughout the state's major regions range from 3.5 percent in the nine-county San Francisco Bay to 11.4 percent in the Central Valley (Figure 2). In general, the lower employment rates are found in the northern part of the state, while higher rates are found in the south and Central Valley. In each region, however, the October 1998 rate is lower than that recorded a year earlier.

 

Figure 2
Regional Unemployment Rates

Manufacturing Slowdown Concentrated in North
Manufacturing jobs for the state as a whole rose by roughly 12,000 for the year ending in October. However, manufacturing employment fell again in the San Francisco Bay Area, particularly in the San Jose MSA, where it fell by nearly 6,000 (Figure 3). (Manufacturing employment fell by just under 1,000 in the San Francisco MSA.) Eighty percent (4,600 jobs) of the job losses occurred in computer and office equipment and communications equipment and electronic components. Employment in these two categories fell from 138,000 to 133,400. At the other end of the state, manufacturing employment rose by 11,000 in the Los Angeles MSA, 9,200 in the Orange County MSA, and 7,300 in the Riverside-San Bernardino MSA.

Figure 3
Changes in Manufacturing Employment, Major MSAs

Inflation Remains Low
The consumer inflation rate remains low in the U.S and in California. In October, CPI-U measured at an annual rate of 2.0 percent for California and 1.5 percent for the United States. Consumer prices increases remain low or are negative for a wide range of commodities and products in California (Figure 4). For example, gasoline prices have fallen nearly 20 percent in the last year. Housing and shelter prices continue to increase at a rate above the CPI-U figure for all items. In the last year, California housing and shelter prices rose 3.9% and 5.6%, respectively. (See RAND California Inflation Statistics for inflation readings in California and the U.S.)

Figure 4
Consumer Inflation in California

 

Exports Fall Again<
Merchandise exports from the state's two largest customs districts continued to fall in August. (Figure 5). Compared with 1997, August exports fell 17.0 percent for the sate, 20.0 percent from San Francisco, and 19.4 percent from Los Angeles. Exports from San Diego Customs District in August grew 14.1 percent from the previous year. During the same time period, U.S. exports fell 6.4 percent. (See RAND California Foreign Trade Statistics for more details.)

 

Figure 5
Customs District Exports, August 1997 and August 1998

Return to top of this issue
Return to RAND California Economic Reports
Return to RAND California Home Page