Vol. 1, No. 4
Issued Sept. 14, 1998
Covering the period through June 1998

Next publication date: October 5, 1998

In This Issue

 

Large Drops in Annual Unemployment Rates In Many Areas of the State
The June 1998 unemployment rate for California fell to 5.8 percent, a 0.5 percent drop fall from a year earlier. Unemployment rate declines of 0.6 percent or more occurred in a number of areas, including the following MSAs: Ventura, Riverside-San Bernardino, Bakersfield, San Diego, Vallejo-Fairfield-Napa, Sacramento, and Oakland (Figure 1). Unemployment rates also fell at least 0.6 percent in Mono, Tuolumne, Imperial, Tehama, Mariposa, Trinity, Amador, Butte, and Tulare counties. (See RAND California Employment and Unemployment Statistics for detailed employment statistics on California and its regions.)

Figure 1
Areas With Largest Unemployment Rate Declines, June 1997-June 1998

Nearly 400,000 New Jobs in Last Year Statewide
California added 395,000 nonfarm jobs for the year ending in June, an annual growth rate of 3.0 percent. More than three-fourths of these were in service-producing sectors, particularly business services (82,100) and state and local government employment (50,800). About three-fourths of the increase in state and local government employment occurred because of expanding public school employment. Annual job growth by major industry sector was concentrated in construction, services, and trade (Figure 2). The number of construction jobs statewide increased 53,000 to nearly 610,000. Nearly one-third of these new construction jobs occurred in the Los Angeles Region, about one-fourth occurred in the Bay Area, and the remainder occurred throughout other areas of the state.

Figure 2
Annual Employment Growth by Major Sector, Year Ending in June

Commercial Real Estate Vacancies Low, Particularly in Bay Area
Commercial real estate continued to show signs of strength in the first six months of 1998. New non-residential construction is at its highest levels this decade. The value of all nonresidential permits is expected to reach $14 billion in 1998, roughly double the levels of the 1992-1994 period. (See RAND California New Construction Statistics for more information.) In addition, vacancy rates remain low, particularly in the Bay Area (Figure 3). The metropolitan vacancy rate for San Francisco registered just over 3 percent in June. The rate in San Jose (Santa Clara County) was 5.0 percent. (See RAND California Non-residential Vacancy Statistics for more information.)

 

Figure 3
Metropolitan Office Vacancy Rates

Housing Prices Rise In All Areas
Housing prices continue their rise in virtually all areas of the state, as employment and personal income expand. The median price now exceeds $372,000 (in 1997 dollars) in San Mateo County, and it is just below $350,000 in Marin County. Prices are the lowest among major metropolitan areas in the Inland Empire (San Bernardino and Riverside counties), and in Sacramento, where the median price is just over $110,000. (See RAND California Housing Price and Transaction Statistics for more information.)

Figure 4
Median Housing Prices in Selected Areas

Exports Fall from Prior Year Heights
Merchandise exports from the San Francisco and Los Angeles Customs Districts in June fell substantially from their prior year levels (Figure 5). Exports were off 9.5 percent from San Francisco, 16.3 percent from Los Angeles, and 11.5 percent for the state as a whole. Exports from San Diego Customs District, although less than 10 percent of the state's total, grew more than 20 percent. Exports for the U.S. less California are up slightly from 1997 levels, but also show weakness due to slowing economies around the world.

 

Figure 5
Customs District, U.S. Less California Exports

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